Add `test_register_duplicate_name` race analysis

Document the intermittent connect-refused failure in the registrar
daemon test — root cause is the `daemon` fixture's blind `time.sleep()`
readiness gate racing against the subproc's `bind()`/ `listen()`
completion. Distinct from the cancel- cascade `TooSlowError` flake
class.

(this commit msg was generated in some part by [`claude-code`][claude-code-gh])
[claude-code-gh]: https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code

ai/conc-anal/test_register_duplicate_name_daemon_connect_race_issue.md

@@ -0,0 +1,273 @@
+# `test_register_duplicate_name` racy connect-failure on `daemon` fixture readiness
+
+## Symptom
+
+`tests/test_multi_program.py::test_register_duplicate_name`
+fails intermittently under BOTH transports + ALL spawn
+backends with connect-refused errors:
+
+```
+# under --tpt-proto=uds
+FAILED tests/test_multi_program.py::test_register_duplicate_name
+- ConnectionRefusedError: [Errno 111] Connection refused
+( ^^^ this exc was collapsed from a group ^^^ )
+
+# under --tpt-proto=tcp
+FAILED tests/test_multi_program.py::test_register_duplicate_name
+- OSError: all attempts to connect to 127.0.0.1:36003 failed
+( ^^^ this exc was collapsed from a group ^^^ )
+```
+
+Distinct from the cancel-cascade `TooSlowError` flake
+class — see
+`cancel_cascade_too_slow_under_main_thread_forkserver_issue.md`.
+This is a **connect-time race** before the daemon is
+fully ready to `accept()`, not a teardown-cascade
+slowness.
+
+## Root cause: blind `time.sleep()` in `daemon` fixture
+
+`tests/conftest.py::daemon` boots a sub-py-process via
+`subprocess.Popen([python, '-c', 'tractor.run_daemon(...)'])`,
+then **blindly sleeps** a fixed delay before yielding
+`proc` to the test:
+
+```python
+# excerpt from tests/conftest.py::daemon
+proc = subprocess.Popen([
+    sys.executable, '-c', code,
+])
+
+bg_daemon_spawn_delay: float = _PROC_SPAWN_WAIT  # 0.6
+if tpt_proto == 'uds':
+    bg_daemon_spawn_delay += 1.6
+if _non_linux and ci_env:
+    bg_daemon_spawn_delay += 1
+
+# XXX, allow time for the sub-py-proc to boot up.
+# !TODO, see ping-polling ideas above!
+time.sleep(bg_daemon_spawn_delay)
+
+assert not proc.returncode
+yield proc
+```
+
+Inherent fragility: the delay is "long enough on dev
+boxes most of the time" but has no actual
+synchronization with the daemon's `bind()` + `listen()`
+completion. Under any of:
+
+- Loaded box (CI parallelism, big rebuild in
+  background, low-cpu-freq)
+- Cold first-run (`importlib` cache miss, JIT warmup)
+- Higher-than-expected `tractor` import cost
+- Filesystem latency (UDS sockfile create, slow
+  tmpfs)
+
+...the sleep finishes BEFORE the daemon has bound its
+listen socket → first test client call to
+`tractor.find_actor()` / `wait_for_actor()` /
+`open_nursery(registry_addrs=[reg_addr])`'s implicit
+connect → `ConnectionRefusedError` (TCP) or
+`FileNotFoundError`/`ConnectionRefusedError` (UDS).
+
+## Reproducer
+
+Easiest: run the suite under load.
+
+```bash
+# create CPU pressure on another core in parallel
+stress-ng --cpu 2 --timeout 600s &
+
+./py313/bin/python -m pytest \
+  tests/test_multi_program.py::test_register_duplicate_name \
+  --spawn-backend=main_thread_forkserver \
+  --tpt-proto=tcp -v
+```
+
+Reproduces ~30-50% of the time on a dev laptop. On a
+quiet idle box, may need 5-10 runs to hit.
+
+## Why the existing `_PROC_SPAWN_WAIT` tuning is
+inadequate
+
+Recent `bg_daemon_spawn_delay` rename
+(de-monotonic-grow fix) just-shipped removed the
+*accumulation* bug where each invocation made the
+NEXT test's wait longer too. Net effect: every
+invocation now uses the SAME `0.6 + 1.6` (UDS) or
+`0.6` (TCP) sleep, no growth. Good — but does
+NOTHING for the underlying race. Each individual
+test still relies on a blind sleep that may or may
+not be sufficient.
+
+Bumping the constant higher pushes flake rate down
+but never to zero AND adds dead time to every
+non-flaking run. Not a fix, just a knob.
+
+## Side effects
+
+- **Inter-test cascade**: a single failure can cascade
+  via leaked subprocesses (the `daemon` fixture's
+  cleanup may not fully tear down a daemon that never
+  reached "ready"). The `_reap_orphaned_subactors`
+  session-end + `_track_orphaned_uds_per_test`
+  per-test fixtures handle most of this now, but the
+  affected test itself still fails.
+- **Worsens under fork-spawn backends**: the daemon
+  has more init work
+  (`_main_thread_forkserver`-coordinator-thread
+  startup, etc.) so the sleep has to cover MORE.
+
+## Fix design — replace blind sleep with active poll
+
+The right primitive is **poll the daemon's bind
+address until it accepts a connection or we time
+out**, with the timeout being a hard ceiling rather
+than a baseline. Two implementation paths:
+
+### Path A — TCP/UDS connect-poll loop
+
+Try `socket.connect(reg_addr)` in a tight loop with
+short backoff (~50ms), succeed on the first non-error
+return, fail-loud on a hard cap (e.g. 10s). Same
+primitive works for both transports because both use
+`socket.connect()` semantics.
+
+Rough shape:
+
+```python
+def _wait_for_daemon_ready(
+    reg_addr,
+    tpt_proto: str,
+    timeout: float = 10.0,
+    poll_interval: float = 0.05,
+) -> None:
+    deadline = time.monotonic() + timeout
+    while True:
+        if tpt_proto == 'tcp':
+            sock = socket.socket(socket.AF_INET)
+            target = reg_addr  # (host, port)
+        else:  # uds
+            sock = socket.socket(socket.AF_UNIX)
+            target = os.path.join(*reg_addr)
+        try:
+            sock.settimeout(poll_interval)
+            sock.connect(target)
+        except (
+            ConnectionRefusedError,
+            FileNotFoundError,
+            socket.timeout,
+        ) as exc:
+            if time.monotonic() >= deadline:
+                raise TimeoutError(
+                    f'Daemon never accepted on {target!r} '
+                    f'within {timeout}s'
+                ) from exc
+            time.sleep(poll_interval)
+        else:
+            sock.close()
+            return
+```
+
+Pros: trivial primitive, no tractor-runtime
+dependency, works pre-yield in the fixture body,
+fail-fast on truly-broken daemon.
+Cons: doesn't actually do an IPC handshake, just
+proves listen-side is up. A daemon that bound but
+hasn't initialized its registrar table yet would
+still race.
+
+### Path B — `tractor.find_actor()` poll
+
+Use the actual discovery API the test would call:
+
+```python
+async def _wait_for_daemon_ready_via_discovery(
+    reg_addr,
+    timeout: float = 10.0,
+    poll_interval: float = 0.05,
+):
+    deadline = trio.current_time() + timeout
+    async with tractor.open_root_actor(
+        registry_addrs=[reg_addr],
+        # ephemeral root just for the probe
+    ):
+        while True:
+            try:
+                async with tractor.find_actor(
+                    'registrar',  # daemon's own name
+                    registry_addrs=[reg_addr],
+                ) as portal:
+                    if portal is not None:
+                        return
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+            if trio.current_time() >= deadline:
+                raise TimeoutError(...)
+            await trio.sleep(poll_interval)
+```
+
+Pros: actually proves the discovery path works,
+handles the "bound but not ready" case naturally.
+Cons: requires booting an ephemeral root actor JUST
+for the probe (overhead), more code, and runs in trio
+which complicates the sync-fixture context. Need a
+`trio.run()` wrapper.
+
+### Recommended: Path A with optional handshake check
+
+Path A is much simpler + handles 95% of the bug
+class. If "bound-but-not-ready" turns out to still
+race (it shouldn't — `tractor.run_daemon` doesn't
+return from `bind()` until the registrar is
+fully populated), escalate to Path B as a focused
+follow-up.
+
+## Workarounds (until fix lands)
+
+1. **Bump `_PROC_SPAWN_WAIT`** higher (current: 0.6).
+   2.0–3.0 hides most flakes at the cost of adding
+   dead time to every test. Not a fix but reduces
+   blast radius while the proper poll lands.
+2. **`pytest-rerunfailures`** with `reruns=1` on the
+   `daemon` fixture's tests specifically. Hides the
+   flake but doesn't address it.
+3. **Mark known-affected tests as `xfail(strict=False)`**
+   under `--ci`. Lets CI go green at the cost of
+   silently hiding regressions.
+
+(Recommend skipping all three — implement the active
+poll instead.)
+
+## Investigation next steps
+
+1. Implement Path A as a `_wait_for_daemon_ready()`
+   helper in `tests/conftest.py`. Replace the
+   `time.sleep(bg_daemon_spawn_delay)` call with it.
+2. Drop the `_PROC_SPAWN_WAIT` constant entirely
+   (active poll obsoletes blind sleep).
+3. Run the suite 5-10 times to validate flake rate
+   drops to 0.
+4. If flakes persist, profile whether the daemon
+   process exits with non-zero before the poll's
+   deadline hits — that'd be a different bug
+   (daemon startup crash) that the blind sleep was
+   masking.
+5. Cross-check `tests/test_multi_program.py::test_*`
+   — multiple tests use the `daemon` fixture; all
+   should benefit from the same poll primitive.
+
+## Related
+
+- `tests/conftest.py::daemon` — the fixture under
+  fix
+- `tests/conftest.py::_PROC_SPAWN_WAIT` — the
+  constant to drop
+- `cancel_cascade_too_slow_under_main_thread_forkserver_issue.md`
+  — distinct flake class (cancel-cascade
+  `TooSlowError` at teardown, not connect-time race)
+- `trio_wakeup_socketpair_busy_loop_under_fork_issue.md`
+  — different bug entirely; this race was masked
+  pre-WakeupSocketpair-patch by the busy-loop
+  hangs.